FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

WATCH: Fmr VP (and, Arizonan) Dan Quayle At Trump Tower Today; Is Ben Quayle Making The Trip, Too?

Arizona's Dan Quayle - formerly Vice President of the U.S. (under George H.W. Bush) - was in Trump Tower today. He apparently caught many younger reporters by surprise.
(click on pic for video)
Speculation immediately began about what Quayle discussed with President-Elect Donald Trump,  though a Cabinet position for the elder Quayle may seem to be unlikely. Of course, some Arizonans may begin to wonder whether the subject of former Arizona Rep. Ben Quayle came up. The latter is currently a registered lobbyist.

A quick review of FEC records by Arizona's Politics shows that neither Quayle contributed to any Republican Presidential candidate this year.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4633234/dan-quayle-trump-tower
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Saturday, November 19, 2016

WATCH: McCain: Senate Should Give the President A Honeymoon, But Not On Torture

The main story from Arizona Senator John McCain's remarks today at the Halifax International Security Forum was his warning the incoming Trump Administration to avoid waterboarding, but he also urged Democratic Senators to help pass some of the Trump priorities.

"It would be far better for us if we gave the President a honeymoon and worked together and presented him with things like tax reform, repatriation of... a good, solid defense bill that we could all support. There's a number of areas that are open to cooperation between Republicans and Democrats, and that's what I think all of us are committed to do."

By "repatriation", he was apparently referring to bringing home what he said is $2T "that is parked overseas, bring it home and invest it in infrastructure." He also indicated that the GOP is going to fix Obamacare with or without Democrats, but that it would be better if there were fixes made with bi-partisan support.



McCain also participated in the session discussing Syria, titled "Because Syria: I’m Your Friendly Neighborhood Terrorist". Also in that discussion were Ministers from Turkey and France, and Gen. (ret.) John Allen.


The Halifax International Security Forum takes place each November in Halifx, Nova Scotia (Canada).

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Thursday, November 17, 2016

Constable To JP: Fred Arnett Chosen This Afternoon To Make That Unusual Move In West Mesa

On January 2,  Constable Fred Arnett will stop serving court papers throughout the West Mesa Justice Precinct and will start issuing the papers as the Justice of the Peace. The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors met this afternoon and unanimously chose Arnett to replace the resigning JP, Mark Anderson.

(Arizona's Politics reported earlier today that the decision was imminent.)

Interestingly, Arnett was chosen over Dan Dodge, who had served as a Justice of the Peace in the Highland (Gilbert) Precinct for several years.  Arnett and Dodge were the only two to apply to serve out Anderson's term who lived in the West Mesa Justice Precinct.

“Fred’s commitment to the West Mesa community extends back years. He was raised and now is raising his own family in the community he will now serve,” said District 1 Supervisor Denny Barney, whose supervisorial district encompasses much of the justice precinct.

Arnett has been the Constable for the past 16 years, and is also a licensed real estate broker.

Anderson was elected to the JP post in 2010 and 2014, after serving 14 years in the state Legislature. He resigned on October 20, effective January 1, 2017. West Mesa precinct residents had two weeks to apply to replace him for the remainder of his four year term.

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Maricopa County Supervisors Set To Name Replacement JP For West Mesa

The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors are meeting this afternoon to choose a new Justice of the Peace for West Mesa. Four people reportedly applied for the appointment, after JP Mark Anderson announced his resignation.

Maricopa County Communications Director Fields Moseley indicates to Arizona's Politics that the Supervisors will be deciding between the two  applicants who actually live in the justice court precinct. He declined to name the men* until after the meeting, set for 3:45pm.

Supervisors Steve Chucri and Denny Barney interviewed the candidates, and will presumably make their recommendation(s) to the other three Supervisors.

Anderson was elected to the JP post in 2010 and 2014, after serving 14 years in the state Legislature. He resigned on October 20, effective January 1, 2017. West Mesa precinct residents had two weeks to apply to replace him for the remainder of his four year term.

*Moseley did describe the candidates as "men". 


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Saturday, November 5, 2016

BULLETIN: U.S. Supreme Court Has Final Word In Ping Pong Match: Arizona CAN Prosecute Ballot Harvesting!

That didn't take long. Without comment this morning, the U.S. Supreme Court has put Arizona's "ballot harvesting" ban BACK IN PLACE. That reverses an 11-judge en banc panel of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, which yesterday ruled that the law making delivering early ballots of non-related persons to elections officials could not be enforced.


h/t Tom Collins

Per the authoritative SCOTUSblog, Justice Anthony Kennedy (who is assigned 9th Circuit emergency matters) referred the emergency joint appeal by Arizona and the Arizona Republican Party to the full* Court. There is no indication how each Justice felt about the matter.

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Friday, November 4, 2016

BULLETIN: Arizona Out-of-Precinct Votes Will NOT Be Counted, Per 9th Circuit En Banc Panel (READ)

A 7-4 vote by a panel of 9th Circuit Court of Appeals judges ruled late this afternoon that Arizona voters who cast ballots out of their precinct on Election Day will not have their votes count.

The en banc panel will consider whether that should change for future elections, but specifically said that it will not apply to the 2016 election taking place this coming Tuesday.

The issue was one of several stemming from the lawsuit that national and Arizona Democrats - including the Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders campaigns - brought in the wake of the March Presidential Preference Election.

In another of the issues stemming from that case, earlier today the 9th Circuit STOPPED the Arizona ban on so-called "ballot harvesting". During the next four days, groups will be allowed to gather voters' COMPLETED ballots for delivery to elections officials on either Monday or Tuesday.

Election law expert Professor Rick Hasen writes tonight that he would expect the Democrats to try to immediately bring this to the U.S. Supreme Court, but that a likely 4-4 split on the short-handed high court would leave the 9th Circuit's decision in place.

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BULLETIN: Ballot Harvesting Permitted In Arizona Over Next 5 Days


An 11-judge en banc panel of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals decided 6-5 this afternoon to permit so-called "ballot harvesting". That stops enforcement of a new Arizona law that attempted to criminalize the process of collecting people's early ballots and delivering them to elections officials.  

Document by arizonaspolitics on Scribd


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Thursday, November 3, 2016

No, Joe, You Do NOT Have To Worry About Being Outspent...Even By George Soros!

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio worries that he is going to be buried in a "fundraising avalanche" because Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton tweeted that her opponent (Donald Trump) supports Arpaio, and that Paul Penzone "is already outspending me because of help from liberals like billionaire George Soros."

Arpaio can rest assured. He has never been outspent. He is not being outspent. He will never be outspent. Not by his opponent, and not even by billionaire George Soros.

Even before his new campaign finance report is filed - due tomorrow - Arpaio already spent more than $10.8 MILLION (through September). Between the August 30 primary and next Tuesday's Election Day, Arpaio will have spent more than $2.4M on television ads attacking Penzone for a disputed domestic violence incident, featuring cute dogs he has sheltered, and proclaiming that he has made residents safer.

That is more than the Penzone campaign and the Soros-funded independent expenditure group Maricopa Srong have spent combined on airtime attacking Arpaio's record. ($1.8M).

To put it into perspective, Arpaio has spent more in less time than John McCain ($10.3M) has running for re-election statewide. (Way more than McCain challenger Ann Kirkpatrick - $7.7M.)

Arpaio has spent more than Arizona's 8 other Congress members...COMBINED! Excluding Matt Salmon, who is not running for re-election, they have spent $10.3M.

In fact, in 2016, George Soros has only spent $9.3M on ALL the federal candidates and committees he helps bankroll!  (State and local level races such as Maricopa Strong and the $1.0M he has put into trying to defeat Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery obviously would put him ahead of Arpaio for the year.)

So, if you have the three-alarm Arpaio email sitting in your inbox and you are inclined to send your hard-earned dollars to the Sheriff's campaign fund, take the being outspent claims with a large, large grain of salt. (For your reading pleasure, the email is re-posted below the jump.)

Plus, don't forget, Arpaio has his own billionaire who could help him get over the hump. The one that Clinton was really targeting with her tweet (made while she was in Arpaio territory).

*All figures calculated from filings with Maricopa County Elections (Arpaio), the Federal Communications Commission (broadcast/cable/radio expenditures), and the Federal Elections Commission (Congressional candidates, Soros contributions). Inquire within if you would like more details on the methodology.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

BREAKING: Arizona Secy of State Reagan Warns Against Voter Intimidation Efforts (READ)

As the political parties fight in court about possible plans by Trump supporters - as well as White nationalists - to station people outside many polling places on Election Day next Tuesday, Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan this afternoon issued a comprehensive "Guidance" about what constitutes punishable "voter intimidation."

The 2 1/2 page document addresses the use of uniforms, the display of weapons, taking photos or video, and many other possible intimidation methods.

When asked about what prompted the Guidance, Secretary of State Communications Director Matt Roberts tells Arizona's Politics that "The Secretary and our office has been getting a number of emails/calls social media conversations from people concerned with the General Election. She felt it appropriate that she remind people of the rules, laws on the books."

Reagan even advises law enforcement officers (including Sheriff's Posse members) against hanging out within the 75-foot limit, and even that the "excessive use of uniformed law enforcement personnel may have the effect of intimidating voters."

Civilians who wear uniforms, etc to "pseudo-identify" as an officer or official are warned, as well. Reagan also notes that NO private citizens may enter a polling place with a weapon, and she extends that out to the 75-foot perimeter. She asks that people licensed to carry "strongly consider leaving your weapon at home or in your vehicle if you intend to observe voters."

And, although "ballot selfies" are permitted, no other picture- or video-taking is permitted within the 75-foot limit. Outside of that perimeter, it could still be "potentially intimidating."

The rest of the Guidance is also worth a read and is published below (as well as on their website).

The Arizona and national Democrats have filed a federal suit against the state GOP, the Donald Trump campaign and Trump supporter Roger Stone for announced plans to conduct "exit polling" and to monitor polling places.  A hearing on the Arizona case is set for tomorrow afternoon.



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BULLETIN: 9th Circuit To Take 2nd Look At Arizona Ballot Harvesting Ban; Vacates Earlier Opinion Upholding Law

Arizona's ban on ballot harvesting is back in contention this afternoon, as a majority of judges in the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals vacated the three judge panel's opinion upholding the law, and ordered an en banc panel to quickly re-decide.

At least five judges disagreed with the decision to vacate, but a majority voted to vacate and re-hear. Judge Stephen Reinhardt wrote the opinion expressing the reasons to re-hear. But, as UC Irvine election law Professor Rick Hasen points out, Reinhardt makes the "pretty extraordinary prediction" that the larger panel - drawn by lots - will still uphold the law even though he thinks that a majority of all the 9th Circuit judges would strike it down.

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BREAKING: Arizona Democrats Still Fighting To Allow Columbus-Day/1-Day-Late Registrants To Vote; Reagan Says Did NOT Contradict Herself (READ)

Democrats filed a new motion in federal court this morning, asking the Court to order Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan to ensure that 2,069 people who mailed their voter registration forms in at the last minute are permitted to cast provisional ballots on Tuesday. The State quickly responded, saying that Reagan cannot order the County Recorders to do that. (Both pleadings are published below)

The deadline to register to vote fell on Columbus Day, and the U.S. Postal Service did not deliver mail that day. Reagan had turned down requests to extend the deadline one day, so the Arizona and national Democrats filed a lawsuit. They sought an emergency order requiring all Arizona counties to add the voters to their Election Day pollbooks.

A hearing was held before U.S.  District Court Judge Steven Logan on October 21, and post-hearing filings were filed by both sides. Then, on Friday, Reagan issued a news release in which she said "We also hope to add an additional 2,069 potential voters if the court allows those who registered after the statutory deadline to be added to the rolls." (emphasis added).

That prompted the Democrats and the Judge to ask for a Halloween Day clarification. The State said (below) that there was no contradiction: "(T)he Secretary’s intent was to make an aspirational statement that, should she receive an adverse ruling in this matter, she would do her utmost to comply."

This morning, the Democrats filed a Motion To Modify Relief Sought. Instead of forcing the names to be added to the Election Day pollbooks, the Democrats asked that the 2,069 be permitted to cast provisional ballots and that those ballots be counted with other valid provisionals. They also ask that Reagan quickly mail out a notice to the 2,069, informing them of their right to vote a provisional.

Within the past hour, the State responded, insisting that even if Judge Logan orders Reagan to do so, Reagan has no authority to force all of the County Recorders to accept and count the ballots. The State is mystified as to WHY the Democrats have not named the County Recorders as Defendants. (Arizona's Politics is, as well.)

Judge Logan will likely rule quickly.

(Tempe attorney Paul Weich, who includes election law in his practice, contributed this article.)





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Tuesday, November 1, 2016

UPDATE: Arizona's "Defend The Donald... Exit Polling" Plan Set For Thursday Emergency Hearing

Trump's* plan to send supporters to more than 100 polling places around Arizona on Election Day is headed for an emergency hearing tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon.



ORDER: Plaintiff shall serve the Complaint and Summons, if not already served, as well as this Order on Defendants by 11:00 AM on 11/1/2016. Plaintiff shall file an opening brief on its request for injunctive relief by 5:00 PM on 11/1/2016. Defendants shall file a responsive brief on Plaintiff's request for injunctive relief by 5:00 PM on 11/2/2016. Plaintiff may file a reply brief by 12:00 noon on 11/3/2016. FURTHER ORDERED setting a hearing on Plaintiff's request for injunctive relief at 1:30 PM on 11/3/2016 in Courtroom 505, 401 West Washington Street, Phoenix, AZ 85003 before Judge John J Tuchi. Signed by Judge John J Tuchi on 10/31/2016. (MMO) (Entered: 10/31/2016)
(Trump's* Arizona Election Day "Exit Polling" Army Larger Than Other Swing States)




*Roger Stone was an advisor to Donald Trump when he began his campaign last year, and explicitly states that he is trying to Defend the Donald - while at the same time saying that his exit polling plan is intended to be "completely neutral" and "scientifically valid".

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Former Arizona Gov. Brewer Uses Super PAC Donations To Pay Son (FOLLOWING MONEY IN ARIZONA'S POLITICS)

Jan Brewer's Super PAC paid Facebook $10,000 to support Donald Trump’s Presidential campaign. And, it has shelled out nearly $6,000 to benefit one of her children.


Brewer amassed a $300k+ Super PAC war chest before she left Arizona’s Governor’s office in 2015. At the time, Arizona’s Politics explored the different avenues available to her, and noted that there were few constraints. After 1 ½ years of near inactivity, Brewer has chosen a combination of Options 2 & 3* – paying for political-related travel (to the convention and debates) and hiring her son.

Brewer has not yet responded to Arizona’s Politics’ requests for details on why Michael Brewer – a practicing podiatrist – was hired by Jan PAC in August.  

Brewer received his first check just one week before his mother took to the national airwaves specifically to blast Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton for “corruption” and “pay to play”. (“GLASS HOUSES: Gov. Brewer Hits Clinton On Corruption, Forgets About Questionable Jan PAC Contributions”) Jan PAC was funded with many contributions from businesses making proposals to the state or benefitting from key gubernatorial positions – such as accepting Obamacare funds. Total contributions to Jan PAC have totaled more than $1.4M (since inception in late 2011).

In 2012, the Governor spent a good portion of the Jan PAC funds supporting Republicans running for Congress in Arizona. After mixed success, she re-stocked the fund in her final years in office and kept her powder dry in the 2014 Congressional elections. At the time, there was some speculation that she might consider challenging Sen. John McCain in this year’s primary; she did not.

The $9,896 spent supporting Trump on Facebook is the first time that she has spent money on a candidate since 2012. (If you have a copy of the Facebook ad, please forward to Arizona's Politics.) She has $325,738 cash on hand, as of October 19.

As discussed in our 2014 article, it is not illegal for Gov. Brewer to use the Super PAC donations for her own use (or, for her children). Campaign finance expert - and, the attorney for the now-defunct Super PAC set up by Stephen Colbert - Trevor Potter told Arizona's Politics at the time:  "You are right- few restrictions on SuperPacs still." Nothing has changed since then that would close that loophole.

Brewer's state-level Super PAC equivalent, Arizona's Legacy, just spent down its balance (≈$32,000) supporting Kate Brophy McGee in a pivotal State Senate battle against Eric Meyer (LD28). (Typically,neither the independent expenditure reports for the Trump nor the Brophy McGee disbursements were timely filed.)

*Option (2) Stay active and travel the nation in comfort (the Palin scenario). Option (3) Pocket the money, and fund her retirement (the every old-time politician scenario). See, "Gov. Brewer's Super PACs: Retirement Fund, 2016 Run Against McCain, Or Just "Stay Active" Money?" for further details.
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